在全方面的紧张局势中，我们认为 "技术冷战 "是全球投资者未来的一大风险。它可能会对各地的工业供应链、科技公司和消费者产生深远的影响。 

Among the tensions, we see a “technology cold war” as a major future risk for global investors. It might have far-reaching implications for industrial supply chains, technology companies and consumers everywhere. 

全球供应链从未如此一体化。特斯拉从韩国和日本供应商那里购买电动车电池，而这些供应商则从中国进口钴和石墨。然后，特斯拉在全球范围内组装并销售产品，其中仍然包括中国。考虑到人们对国家安全的担忧，以及新冠时代供应链的不稳定性，许多产业链已经作出了调整，并日益孤立。但我们认为，只要中国继续拥抱创新，而且——最重要的是——继续改革和鼓励国内消费，中国就不会在这个过程中成为实质性的输家。 

Global supply chains have never been more integrated. For example, Tesla buys EV batteries from Korean and Japanese suppliers who import cobalt and graphite from China. Tesla then assembles and sells its final products globally, including back to China. Given concerns over national security and now supply chain reliability post-COVID-19, some adjustments have already taken place to the supply chains. A more isolationist outcome is likely, but we do not expect China to be a material loser in the process, as long as it continues to embrace innovation and – importantly – continues to reform and encourage domestic consumption. 

在成本效率、劳动力供应、原材料、配套设施或通往终端市场的物流等因素的推动下，供应链的演进是很自然的。技术突破往往需要产品生态系统中每个人的合作。例如，荷兰半导体供应商ASML在推进智能设备的小型元件制造方面需要台湾供应商公司台积电的支持。两家公司都需要对方的专业知识和研发技能，以提供更好的最终产品。在不对全部供应链造成严重干扰的情况下，快速替换部分供应链难度很大。 

The evolution of a supply chain is natural driven by factors like cost efficiency, labour supply, raw materials, supporting facilities or logistics to end-markets. Technological breakthroughs often require cooperation from everyone in a product ecosystem. For example, ASML, a Dutch semiconductor supplier, needed the support of TSMC, a Taiwanese supplier company, in advancing the manufacture of smaller components for smart devices. Both companies needed each other’s know-how and R&D skills to deliver a better ultimate product. It can be difficult to quickly replace part of a supply chain without severe disruptions to all. 

今年早些时候，美国政府进一步限制向中国领先的电信设备生产商华为供应芯片。毫无疑问，这给该公司及其供应链带来了压力，但仍不至于完全停止生产。自两年前紧张局势开始以来，华为一直在适应变化。除了每年数十亿美元的研发支出外，它还与国内供应商合作，快速推进替代技术和产品。 

Earlier this year, the US Government further restricted the supply of chips to Huawei, China’s leading telecoms equipment producer. No doubt this pressured the company and its supply chain, but not to a full stop. Huawei has been adapting since tensions started two years ago. In addition to billions of dollars of annual R&D spend, it is working with domestic suppliers to fast-track substitute technology and products. 

以5G为例。中国目前在5G推广和供应运行网络的系统方面处于世界领先地位。目前，5G基站中85%的组件都是从非美国（主要是中国本土）供应商采购或可以替代。对于剩下的15%，比如主控制器和模数转换器，它们将被华为的新一代产品所替代。其中一些替代品的性能可能不如美国的同类产品，但它们可以胜任工作。下图显示了5G基站供应链的变化轨迹： 

Take 5G. China is currently a world leader in 5G rollout and supplying the systems that run the networks. Currently, 85% of the components in a 5G base station are procured from or can be replaced by non-US (mostly Chinese domestic) suppliers. For the remaining 15%, like the principal controllers and the analogue-to-digital converters, they will be replaced by a new generation of Huawei’s products. Some of these alternatives might not perform as well as the US comparables, but they do the job. The chart below shows how the supply chain for a 5G station can change.

（来源：Cephei Capital，红色为华为自主研发替代产品，绿色代表被其他国家产品代替）

到2020年底，中国的5G基站将占全球总数的70%以上，并成为继韩国之后第二个用5G网络覆盖所有主要城市的国家。

By the end of 2020, China’s 5G base stations will account for over 70% of the worldwide total. It will become the second country after South Korea to cover all major cities with 5G networks. 

对于依赖外国技术的中国公司，还有全球的供应商来说，技术冷战无异于两败俱伤。对各地的消费者来说，这也是一个坏消息：重复研究通常意味着更高的价格。当然，任何一场战争都不乏赢家。中国的本土消费品牌将从不断上升的民族主义和国内产品的替代中获益，更高的销售额刺激他们投资研发，并有机会赶超外国品牌。 

The outcome of a technology cold war is negative for Chinese companies who depend on foreign technologies, as well as their suppliers globally. It is also bad news for consumers everywhere. Duplicate research usually means higher prices. But there are winners. Local consumer brands gain from rising nationalism and domestic product substitution. Higher sales allow them to invest in R&D and catch up to foreign brands.